Publications & Advocacy (Since January 2025)

Policy Alert: Constitutional Integrity at Risk in the DRC

Overview

Since early 2025, COGEX has raised sustained concerns regarding attempts to undermine constitutional order in the Democratic Republic of the Congo under the leadership of Félix Tshisekedi.

Key Concern

Evidence indicates a political initiative aimed at revising constitutional provisions, particularly those related to presidential term limits, raising fears of institutional destabilization and democratic regression.

Context

• The current constitution limits presidential terms to two five-year mandates

• These provisions stem from post-conflict stabilization efforts following the 2004 Sun City Agreement

• Attempts to alter these provisions risk reversing hard-won democratic gains

COGEX Position

COGEX warns that:

• Constitutional revision under current conditions may trigger institutional breakdown

• It could exacerbate regional instability in an already fragile Great Lakes region

• It risks undermining international credibility and democratic norms

Strategic Memorandum to U.S. Leadership on Governance and Stability

Addressee

This memorandum was addressed to Donald Trump and senior U.S. policymakers.

Core Message

COGEX urged the United States to adopt a principled and conditional engagement strategy toward the DRC, emphasizing:

• Respect for constitutional order

• Support for democratic transition

• Opposition to governance practices that fuel instability

Strategic Risks Identified

• Erosion of U.S. credibility if perceived as supporting contested leadership

• Increased regional instability

• Threats to critical mineral supply chains

• Expansion of external influence, particularly from China

Recommendations

• Condition cooperation on transparent governance benchmarks

• Support inclusive political dialogue

• Promote accountability and rule of law

Policy Brief: Natural Resources, Governance, and Global Security

Issue

COGEX highlighted concerns over opaque agreements involving the DRC’s strategic minerals, including cobalt and coltan.

Key Argument

Unregulated and non-transparent resource deals:

• Undermine national sovereignty

• Distort global supply chains

• Create geopolitical vulnerabilities

Strategic Dimension

The increasing role of foreign actors in resource extraction raises concerns about:

• Supply chain monopolization

• Weak governance oversight

• Long-term economic dependency

COGEX Recommendation

• Ensure all agreements comply with constitutional and parliamentary processes

• Promote transparent and accountable resource governance

• Align partnerships with international legal standards

Advocacy for Inclusive National Dialogue

Position

COGEX strongly supports an inclusive national dialogue framework as the only viable path to sustainable peace.

Proposed Participants

• Government

• Armed and non-armed opposition (including AFC/M23)

• Civil society

• Religious institutions (CENCO & ECC)

• Diaspora representatives

Rationale

Fragmented mediation efforts and parallel negotiation tracks have:

• Delayed resolution

• Increased mistrust

• Weakened African-led mediation mechanisms

Conclusion

A structured, neutral, and internationally supported dialogue is essential for:

• Restoring legitimacy

• Preventing escalation

• Rebuilding national cohesion

Governance Crisis and Human Rights Concerns

Findings

COGEX documented patterns of:

• Political repression

• Arbitrary detentions

• Restrictions on media and civic space

• Allegations of corruption and institutional capture

Humanitarian Context

• Millions remain displaced in eastern DRC

• Security forces face logistical and structural weaknesses

• Civilian protection mechanisms remain insufficient

Policy Implication

Without governance reform:

• Humanitarian conditions will deteriorate

• Political instability will deepen

• Migration pressures will increase globally

Transitional Framework Proposal

COGEX Analytical Position

In light of institutional fragility, COGEX outlined conditions for a potential transitional framework:

Key Elements

• Adoption of a temporary supraconstitutional transitional act

• Establishment of international monitoring mechanisms

• Implementation of graduated enforcement measures

Governance Principles

• Collegial leadership

• Institutional continuity

• Inclusive representation (including diaspora)

Note

References to figures such as Joseph Kabila are made strictly within an analytical framework concerning institutional continuity—not as exclusive endorsements.

Multilateral Coherence and International Engagement

Concern

COGEX identified a growing perception that international actors—particularly the United States—risk being seen as both:

• A stakeholder

• An arbiter

Risks

• Loss of neutrality

• Reduced trust among stakeholders

• Fragmentation of peace efforts

COGEX urges:

• Greater coordination between:

• African Union

• European Union

• Southern African Development Community

• East African Community

• A consistent, impartial approach to conflict resolution

Strategic Recommendations for International Partners

COGEX outlines the following priority actions:

• Enforce constitutional compliance

• Support credible electoral processes

• Facilitate political de-escalation, including:

• Release of political prisoners

• Safe return of exiles

• Reopening civic space

• Establish independent monitoring mechanisms

• Reject any unconstitutional extension of presidential mandates

Conclusion

Across its publications since January 2025, COGEX International Think Tank has consistently emphasized one central principle:

Sustainable peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo depends on constitutional integrity, inclusive governance, and accountable international engagement.

COGEX – INTERNATIONAL THINK TANK

• Website: https://www.comex-thinktank.org

• Email: info@comex-thinktank.org

• Phone: +1 (202) 978-0040

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